Indiana

Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings odds, picks and prediction

The Indiana Pacers (6-3) stop by the Golden 1 Center Monday to play the Sacramento Kings (4-6) at 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Pacers-Kings NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Indiana’s defense got cooked by the Phoenix Suns in a 125-117 home loss as a 3-point favorite Saturday. The Pacers only forced three Suns turnovers while Phoenix had 33 assists, 48.9% shooting and hit 16 of 41 3-point attempts.

The Kings have lost five of their last six games including a 125-99 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers as 5.5-point home underdogs Saturday. The main factor of Sacramento’s loss lied behind the arc as the Trail Blazers made nine more 3’s than the Kings in the 26-point loss.

These teams only met once last season: Indiana won 119-105 at home as a 5-point favorite and the Over cashed by 14.5 points (209.5-point total). The Pacers have beaten the Kings in six of their last seven meetings.

Pacers at Kings: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:11 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Pacers -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Kings +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Pacers -5.5 (-110) | Kings +5.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 227.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Pacers at Kings: Key Injuries

Pacers

  • SG Jeremy Lamb (knee) out
  • PG T.J. McConnell (personal) out
  • SF T.J. Warren (foot) out

Kings

  • SG Buddy Hield (ankle) questionable
  • C Richaun Holmes (ankle) questionable

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Pacers at Kings: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Pacers 118, Kings 115

Money line (ML)

Monitor the injury report because if the Kings’ Holmes plays, I lean KINGS (+180) for a quarter-unit since I like Sacramento plus the points. Holmes makes a big difference to Sacramento’s defense as the Kings’ defensive rating is 7.4 points worse when Holmes is off the court.

Against the spread (ATS)

The Pacers are missing a couple of key contributors and the Kings have the highest free-throw rate in the league while Indiana’s defense is 21st in free-throw attempt over field-goal attempt rate.

If Sacramento can get Indiana into foul trouble it forces the Pacers to use their bench, which is 28th in points per game, against a Kings bench that is 10th in points per game. Also, a hobbled Hield may mean more playing time for rookie SG Tyrese Haliburton, who looks awesome so far this season. Haliburton is averaging 12.1 points per game on 52.2% from the field, 50% from deep and 88.9% from the foul line.

GIMME KINGS +5.5 (-110) for 1.25 units.

Over/Under (O/U)

The market prefers OVER 227.5 (-115) hence the pricier vig and I say we follow the money. According to Pregame.com, more than 70% of the money wagered is on the Over.

Indiana is a top-10 offensively rated team and Sacramento is bottom-5 in several defensive categories, including dead last in defensive rating. If the Kings are going to cover, they’ll probably have to put up some points. Especially if Holmes can’t play or is limited.

I’d only put a half-unit on OVER 227.5 (-115) since I prefer sides more than totals.

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