Caesars

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction


The Atlanta Braves (28-29) travel to the City of Brotherly Love for a three-game set with NL East rival the Philadelphia Phillies (28-30) at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta won back-to-back games against the Los Angeles Dodgers this past weekend to win their series 2-1 but the Braves are just 5-5 in the last 10 overall.

Philadelphia also won back-to-back games and its three-game series with the Washington Nationals, outscoring them 18-10 in the set, while also going 5-5 in their previous 10 games.

Season series: Phillies lead 5-4.

LHP Drew Smyly makes his 10th start for the Braves. Smyly is 2-3 with a 5.98 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 1/3 IP with 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 6 K in Atlanta’s 5-3 loss to the Washington Nationals Wednesday.
  • Smyly made a start vs. Philadelphia April 11 with 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 3 K in a 7-6 loss.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 43 at-bats with a .186/.200/.488 slash line, 6/1 K/BB, 4 HR and 9 RBIs.

RHP Aaron Nola is on the hill for the Phillies. Nola is 4-4 with a 3.84 ERA (70 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 over 12 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 17-3, in 5 IP with 3 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 2 K at the Cincinnati Reds last Tuesday.
  • In Nola’s two starts vs. Atlanta this season, he is 0-1 with 5.91 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.13 WHIP and 8.4 K/9.
    • vs. Braves on the current roster: 266 at-bats with a .244/.309/.447 slash line, 62/24 K/BB, 13 HR and 36 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Braves at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:23 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-145) | Phillies -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Phillies 8, Braves 4

Money line (ML)

BET the PHILLIES (-160) for 1 unit because Nola is the far better starting pitcher and he’s well-rested.

For instance, Nola’s last start against the Braves back on May 9 was tied for his fewest innings pitched in an outing this season (4 IP), but it was his third straight start on four days of rest.

Nola is pitching Tuesday on six days of rest and six-plus days off is Nola’s best rest split; his ERA and WHIP on six-plays days off is the lowest of any rest split.

Also, Nola is 8-2 with one no decision at home vs. Atlanta in his career, and eight of those outings were deemed quality starts. The lone no decision was also a Phillies victory.

Furthermore, Smyly grades in the 13th percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, opponent’s expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage and barrel rate.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since Philly’s bullpen has the fifth-lowest WAR and I’m going to need better than Phillies -1.5 (+120) to sprinkle on their run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” the OVER 9 (-110) for a half unit since most of the situational trends point to a higher-scoring affair and both lineups stack rank well, while the bullpens aren’t very effective.

My hesitation with backing the Over is the vast majority of the market is on the same side and I try to avoid following a crowd in sports betting.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

 <p>

Source

Sportsbook
Welcome to SportsBook-Live.com. Please register to our site, As more States become Available for Online Gambling, We will automatically upgrade your status from Subscriber to Player. Please note we are not affilliated in any way with ESPN, CBS Sports, Home depot or CitiBank GameDay Programs. https://sportsbook-live.com
https://sportsbook-live.com