Illinois

Bracketology 2021 – NCAA Tournament


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 3/14/2021 @ 4:15pm ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Utah St
Wichita St
Louisville
Drake
Syracuse
Colorado St
Mississippi
St Louis
Boise St
Xavier
Memphis
Duke

The team listed at the top of the “Last Four In” is the most vulnerable to miss the tournament.

Bracketology – 2021 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Actual Seed SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds Gonzaga WCC* 26-0 NCAA – 1 0.606 (95)
Baylor B12 22-2 NCAA – 1 0.825 (76)
Michigan B10 20-4 NCAA – 1 1.360 (14)
Illinois B10* 23-6 NCAA – 1 1.390 (10)
2 Seeds Alabama SEC* 24-6 NCAA – 2 1.175 (28)
Ohio St B10 21-9 NCAA – 2 1.485 (5)
Iowa B10 21-8 NCAA – 2 1.273 (21)
Houston AAC* 24-3 NCAA – 2 0.653 (89)
3 Seeds Texas B12* 19-7 NCAA – 3 1.303 (19)
Oklahoma St B12 20-8 NCAA – 4 1.371 (12)
Arkansas SEC 22-6 NCAA – 3 0.858 (71)
Kansas B12 20-8 NCAA – 3 1.352 (16)
4 Seeds West Virginia B12 18-9 NCAA – 3 1.424 (8)
Florida St ACC 16-6 NCAA – 4 1.042 (43)
Virginia ACC 18-6 NCAA – 4 0.984 (52)
Purdue B10 18-9 NCAA – 4 1.378 (11)
5 Seeds Villanova BE 16-6 NCAA – 5 1.147 (32)
Tennessee SEC 18-8 NCAA – 5 1.011 (47)
Creighton BE 20-8 NCAA – 5 1.011 (48)
USC P12 22-7 NCAA – 6 0.957 (58)
6 Seeds Colorado P12 22-8 NCAA – 5 0.859 (70)
Texas Tech B12 17-10 NCAA – 6 0.957 (59)
Oregon P12 20-6 NCAA – 7 0.843 (74)
San Diego St MWC* 23-4 NCAA – 6 0.483 (105)
7 Seeds LSU SEC 18-9 NCAA – 8 1.028 (45)
BYU WCC 20-6 NCAA – 6 0.905 (65)
Clemson ACC 16-7 NCAA – 7 1.120 (35)
Wisconsin B10 17-12 NCAA – 9 1.335 (18)
8 Seeds Missouri SEC 16-9 NCAA – 9 1.269 (22)
Oklahoma B12 15-10 NCAA – 8 1.092 (38)
Loyola-Chicago MVC* 24-4 NCAA – 8 -0.03 (162)
North Carolina ACC 18-10 NCAA – 8 1.121 (34)
9 Seeds Virginia Tech ACC 15-6 NCAA – 10 0.777 (83)
Connecticut BE 15-7 NCAA – 7 1.080 (41)
Florida SEC 14-9 NCAA – 7 1.169 (29)
St Bonaventure A10* 16-4 NCAA – 9 0.579 (98)
10 Seeds Georgia Tech ACC* 17-8 NCAA – 9 0.965 (56)
Rutgers B10 15-11 NCAA – 10 1.486 (4)
VCU A10 19-7 NCAA – 10 0.677 (88)
Maryland B10 16-13 NCAA – 10 1.454 (7)
11 Seeds UCLA P12 17-9 4.168 1.003 (49)
Michigan St B10 15-12 3.994 1.346 (17)
Drake MVC# 25-4 3.988 -0.20 (199)
Louisville ACC# 13-7 3.869 1.109 (36)
Wichita St AAC# 16-5 3.851 0.899 (66)
Utah St MWC# 20-8 3.725 0.318 (117)
12 Seeds Georgetown BE* 13-12 3.547 1.291 (20)
Oregon St P12* 17-12 2.828 0.975 (53)
Winthrop BSo* 23-1 2.384 -0.98 (345)
UC Santa Barbara BWC* 22-4 2.324 -0.20 (197)
13 Seeds North Texas CUSA* 17-9 NCAA – 13 0.092 (135)
Liberty ASC* 23-5 NCAA – 13 -0.61 (296)
Ohio MAC* 16-7 NCAA – 13 -0.16 (187)
UNC Greensboro SC* 21-8 NCAA – 13 -0.19 (195)
14 Seeds Abilene Chr SLC* 23-4 NCAA – 14 -0.98 (346)
Colgate PL* 14-1 NCAA – 14 0.032 (148)
E Washington BSC* 16-7 NCAA – 14 -0.50 (270)
Morehead St OVC* 23-7 NCAA – 14 -0.46 (258)
15 Seeds Grand Canyon WAC* 17-6 NCAA – 15 -0.56 (281)
Cleveland St HL* 19-7 NCAA – 15 -0.48 (266)
Drexel CAA* 12-7 NCAA – 16 -0.30 (221)
Iona MAAC* 12-5 NCAA – 15 -0.47 (261)
16 Seeds Oral Roberts SL* 16-10 NCAA – 15 -0.34 (228)
Mt St Mary’s NEC* 12-10 NCAA – 16 -0.28 (215)
Hartford AEC*# 15-8 NCAA – 16 -0.56 (283)
Norfolk St MEAC*# 16-7 NCAA – 16 -0.79 (331)
Appalachian St SBC*# 17-11 NCAA – 16 -0.19 (194)
TX Southern SWAC*# 16-8 NCAA – 16 -0.82 (333)

There are currently nine teams that are ineligible for the 2021 tournament due to various reasons. Auburn, Arizona, Dixie State, California Baptist, Merrimack, Tarleton State, UC San Diego and North Alabama. Also note that the Ivy League canceled their season. This means that there is one extra at-large bid available this year.

Bracketology – 2021 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament (sixteen for the 2021 season).

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season. (For the 2021 season, there will be no auto-qualifiers)

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds Syracuse ACC 16-9 NCAA – 11 0.963 (57)
Colorado St MWC 18-6 NIT – 1 0.232 (125)
Mississippi SEC 16-11 NIT – 1 0.766 (85)
St Louis A10 14-6 NIT – 1 0.283 (119)
2 Seeds Boise St MWC 18-8 NIT – 2 0.321 (116)
Xavier BE 13-8 Out 0.891 (68)
Memphis AAC 16-8 NIT – 1 0.576 (99)
Duke ACC 13-11 Out 1.066 (42)
3 Seeds Seton Hall BE 14-13 Out 1.215 (25)
NC State ACC 13-10 NIT – 3 0.753 (86)
WKU CUSA* 20-7 NIT – 3 0.157 (131)
Penn St B10 11-14 Out 1.611 (1)
4 Seeds St John’s BE 16-11 Out 0.945 (62)
St Mary’s CA WCC 14-9 NIT – 2 0.917 (63)
Toledo MAC* 21-8 NIT – 3 -0.18 (193)
Belmont OVC* 26-4 Out -0.84 (336)
First Four Out SMU AAC 11-5 NIT – 3 0.490 (104)
Louisiana Tech CUSA 21-7 NIT – 4 -0.06 (169)
Davidson A10 13-8 NIT – 2 0.518 (102)
Richmond A10 13-8 NIT – 2 0.645 (91)

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