March Madness has been as insane as ever. Now the tournament comes to a close with a matchup between Blue Bloods, but one making an unlikely appearance in New Orleans. Time to lock in some college basketball betson DraftKings Sportsbook!
Here’s how I’m going to construct these articles during the NCAA Tournament. Rather than just give bets with unit size, I’m going to write up all the bets/leans I’m considering. That way you get more content and insight on more games. But with that said, please be careful. These aren’t all games that I’ll ultimately bet on.
For my official plays, I’ll continue posting the play to Twitter, but will loop you back to these articles for the analysis.
Everything below is what jumps out to me on the Final Four card.
We played the over at 151 on UNC’s game on Saturday night and while it was just about on pace throughout the game, a late surge got it there comfortably. I think this is a very similar matchup to Duke in terms of the pace and offense we should see in this game.
Villanova did slow the pace with Kansas, but the Jayhawks were just too efficient offensively to make it matter (almost 1.4 points per possession). The Tar Heels will play the way that Kansas likes to — push the pace, shoot 3-pointers and play for a high number of possessions. I see a very similar game to the nightcap we got on Saturday night, which means a lot of points.
UNC is averaging about 82 per game in the tournament, while Kansas averages 77 (with a game down at 66 dropping that total).
I’m very torn on a side in this game, and probably won’t lay the four points for the game. Like I said, I see a similar game to what Carolina played on Saturday, so it’s tough to bet a favorite if UNC can hang in this one and potentially win.
At the same time, the spot sets up for Jayhawks or pass. Kansas got a relatively stress-free win by Final Four standards, then got to relax and enjoy the show/scout the second game. For UNC, it had to work wire-to-wire in a stressful comeback victory. It was a very emotional win, earning the most impactful victory in the history of the Duke/UNC rivalry.
On top of that, Armando Bacot rolled his ankle late in the win. He returned to the game, and I’d be shocked if he wasn’t ready for Monday, that still plays a role. Quick turnaround, and I’m sure there was plenty of swelling.
Ultimately, if I take a side before this one tips off, it’ll probably be Kansas in the first half. We saw how the Jayhawks came out and swarmed on Saturday, and I think UNC could be in position to start slow.
Player Prop: Brady Manek O2.5 Threes (-130)
I wrote this one up for the Final Four game on Saturday night and we cashed again. Here was the analysis on that play:
“In a correlated play with the total, look for Manek to stay hot from downtown. This dude has been launching from downtown in the tournament, a combined 16-for-34 from beyond the arc, making at least three in each contest. The matchup against Duke should set up nicely for Manek. He saw 10 attempts when they met earlier in March, draining five of them in the win. He also went 6-for-10 in the loss the first time these two teams met.”
Manek actually failed to hit a triple in the first half, but got there in the second half, finishing the game 3-for-6. That makes him 19-for-40 from beyond the arc in the tournament, and 24-for-50 in his last six games. Let’s just keep riding this one. The total is nearly identical to last game, and we should see similar pace.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public contests.
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