Free Week 4 Prediction: Texans vs. Bills NFL Odds
Looking for Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills free NFL Week 4 picks & NFL odds? NFL betting sees Texans taking on the Bills on Sunday, October 3 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Cappers Picks provides complimentary handicapping picks all NFL season long including all NFL Week 4 games so stay tuned for more FREE NFL predictions like this Houston Buffalo matchup.
NFL Handicapping Analysis: Week 4
(1-2) Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills (2-1)
Date: Sunday, October 3, 2021
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY.
NFL Week 4 ATS Betting Lines: Buffalo -16.5
NFL Week 4 Moneyline Odds: Houston +850
NFL Week 4 NFL Betting Total: 48.0
This is the most lopsided game on the board in Week 4.
Markets expect Buffalo to smash a third-straight opponent this week.
The Texans are available at +850, and rising, as the long-shot on the moneyline.
The underdog Texans have the added advantage three extra days to prepare. They lost, 24–9, at home to the Panthers on Thursday Night Football in Week 3.
It was the first NFL start for rookie Davis Mills, who was selected in the third round out of Stanford.
Mills went 19-for-28 but for just 168 yards. He connected with Anthony Miller for the first touchdown pass of his career.
He also didn’t turn the ball over; of course, Houston punted six times and finished with less than 200 yards of total offense.
With Tyrod Taylor (hamstring) on the Injured Reserve, Davis will start again this Sunday.
He must be aided by his defense, which held tough against Carolina, at least in the first half. The Panthers scored a touchdown in the third and another one late in the fourth after going into the half with just seven points.
Buffalo’s offense will be an even greater challenge for Houston’s defense to contain than Carolina’s was, though.
After losing a game it should have won against Pittsburgh in Week 1, Buffalo has proceeded to stomp Miami, 35–0, on the road and blowout Washington, 43–21, last week at home.
The game could have been worse for Washington, which scored a long touchdown on a little screen pass and again off of a recovered kick-off that took a bounce right back in the direction it came from.
The Bills’ defense overwhelmed Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke. It will be as, or even more, aggressive against the rookie this week.
Josh Allen threw four touchdowns and rushed for a fifth but more than a couple long drives ended in less than six points. Emphasis this week will be on finishing each and every one of them.
NFL Handicapping Trends:
- Bills are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Head to Head: Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Head to Head: Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
4* Free Week 4 NFL Betting Prediction:
Buffalo will control this game. There’s no value on the moneyline and the spread doesn’t look appetizing, though I do lean Buffalo, especially with the number under 17.
I thought I liked the under just a little bit better because Houston’s defense has held it together so far this season and the Bills could ease up in the second half if its defense is in control.
But no. Buffalo has put up nearly 80 points in two weeks against two pretty good defenses. The under just doesn’t feel safe.
So back to the spread we go. Make it a conservative wager and don’t wait around because I do not recommend you play the Bills at any higher a number than this.
Play: Buffalo -16.5
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About Evan Petty
Handicapper out of the North Shore, MA.
Filed Under: NFL Football