The Indiana Pacers (24-27) stop by FedExForum for a 8 p.m. ET game against the Memphis Grizzlies (26-24). Below, we analyze the Pacers-Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Indiana has won three of its last four games (2-2 against the spread) including back-to-back victories over the Minnesota Timberwolves Tuesday and Orlando Magic Thursday.
Memphis had its four-game win streak snapped by the New York Knicks in a heartbreaking 133-129 overtime Thursday. The Grizzlies are 5-2 overall and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and sit at eighth in the Western Conference.
The Pacers have beaten the Grizzlies in three straight (0-3 ATS) since the beginning of last season with the latest being a 134-116 whooping Feb. 2.
Pacers at Grizzlies: Odds, spread and lines
- Money line: Pacers +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Grizzlies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Pacers +3.5 (-110) | Grizzlies -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 233.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Pacers at Grizzlies: Key injuries
- C Myles Turner (ankle) probable
- PF Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) out
- PG De’Anthony Melton (leg) out
- SF Justise Winslow (quadriceps) out
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Pacers at Grizzlies: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Grizzlies 120, Pacers 113
Money line (ML)
PASS on Memphis outright, but I’d entertain putting Grizzlies (-160) in a parlay with the Chicago Bulls’ money line for a plus-money payout.
Against the spread (ATS)
Grizzlies big Jonas Valančiūnas missed the first Pacers-Grizzlies game this season, which is a major reason Indiana grabbed more rebounds and scored points in the paint.
According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Valančiūnas is in the 96th percentile of bigs for on-off offensive rebounding rate and 97th percentile for defensive rounding rate.
Controlling the glass is a big part of what Memphis does. The Grizzlies average the most paint points and second-chance points per game.
This is a problem for the Pacers who give up the second-most paint points per game and the most second-chance points per game.
The other reason Indiana boat raced Memphis the first time around was because it shot an insane 60% from the field and 55% from behind the arc.
Well, the Grizzlies’ defense is better with Valančiūnas on the floor, and their 3-point defense has vastly improved as the season has progressed.
In fact, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, opponents shoot 3.3% worse from three with Valančiūnas on the floor, which puts him in the 88th percentile of bigs.
The basketball rationale behind this is simple: Memphis can extend its perimeter defense because it trusts Valančiūnas will protect the rim and control the interior.
And post-All-Star break, Memphis is eighth in defensive 3-point percentage, but before the All-Star Game, the Grizzlies were 21st.
Finally, since BetMGM projects a close-one in Pacers-Grizzlies, I’d rather not have my money on an Indiana team that has the sixth-worst net rating in clutch situations.
If this game is close late, Memphis has the edge in half-court basketball and late-game execution.
BET GRIZZLIES -3.5 (-110) for 1 unit only because we are getting the worst of the number since most of the market is backing Memphis.
PASS because my numbers align with BetMGM‘s total. However, the only side of this I’d bet is the Over 233.5 (-110). Both teams are top-10 in pace and should have success in transition.
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