Indiana

Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and prediction

The Indiana Pacers (24-27) stop by FedExForum for a 8 p.m. ET game against the Memphis Grizzlies (26-24). Below, we analyze the Pacers-Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Indiana has won three of its last four games (2-2 against the spread) including back-to-back victories over the Minnesota Timberwolves Tuesday and Orlando Magic Thursday.

Memphis had its four-game win streak snapped by the New York Knicks in a heartbreaking 133-129 overtime Thursday. The Grizzlies are 5-2 overall and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and sit at eighth in the Western Conference.

The Pacers have beaten the Grizzlies in three straight (0-3 ATS) since the beginning of last season with the latest being a 134-116 whooping Feb. 2.

Pacers at Grizzlies: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Pacers +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Grizzlies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Pacers +3.5 (-110) | Grizzlies -3.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 233.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Pacers at Grizzlies: Key injuries

Pacers

  • C Myles Turner (ankle) probable

Grizzlies

  • PF Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) out
  • PG De’Anthony Melton (leg) out
  • SF Justise Winslow (quadriceps) out

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Pacers at Grizzlies: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Grizzlies 120, Pacers 113

Money line (ML)

PASS on Memphis outright, but I’d entertain putting Grizzlies (-160) in a parlay with the Chicago Bulls’ money line for a plus-money payout.

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Against the spread (ATS)

Grizzlies big Jonas Valančiūnas missed the first Pacers-Grizzlies game this season, which is a major reason Indiana grabbed more rebounds and scored points in the paint.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Valančiūnas is in the 96th percentile of bigs for on-off offensive rebounding rate and 97th percentile for defensive rounding rate.

Controlling the glass is a big part of what Memphis does. The Grizzlies average the most paint points and second-chance points per game.

This is a problem for the Pacers who give up the second-most paint points per game and the most second-chance points per game.

The other reason Indiana boat raced Memphis the first time around was because it shot an insane 60% from the field and 55% from behind the arc.

Well, the Grizzlies’ defense is better with Valančiūnas on the floor, and their 3-point defense has vastly improved as the season has progressed.

In fact, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, opponents shoot 3.3% worse from three with Valančiūnas on the floor, which puts him in the 88th percentile of bigs.

The basketball rationale behind this is simple: Memphis can extend its perimeter defense because it trusts Valančiūnas will protect the rim and control the interior.

And post-All-Star break, Memphis is eighth in defensive 3-point percentage, but before the All-Star Game, the Grizzlies were 21st.

Finally, since BetMGM projects a close-one in Pacers-Grizzlies, I’d rather not have my money on an Indiana team that has the sixth-worst net rating in clutch situations.

If this game is close late, Memphis has the edge in half-court basketball and late-game execution.

BET GRIZZLIES -3.5 (-110) for 1 unit only because we are getting the worst of the number since most of the market is backing Memphis.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because my numbers align with BetMGM‘s total. However, the only side of this I’d bet is the Over 233.5 (-110). Both teams are top-10 in pace and should have success in transition.

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