Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

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The Indiana Pacers (17-22) visit American Airlines Arena Friday for the first game of a two-game miniseries against the Miami Heat (22-19). Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Pacers-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Indiana coughed up a 16-point lead in a 124-115 loss to a Kyrie Irving-less Brooklyn Nets squad Wednesday as a 1.5-point home favorite. The Pacers have dropped back-to-back games and have lost four out of their last five and eight of their previous 10 games. They’re 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 contests.

Miami just had a five-game win streak snapped by the Memphis Grizzlies in an 89-85 loss as a 1-point road underdog Wednesday. The Heat have won 11 of their last 13 games with a 9-4 ATS record. Over those 13 games, the Heat are second in defensive rating, and first in fast-break points allowed and points in the paint allowed per game.

The Heat swept the Pacers in four games in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs last season and have won seven of the past eight meetings with a 6-2 ATS record.

Pacers at Heat: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Pacers +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Heat -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Pacers +4 (-110) | Heat -4 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Pacers at Heat: Key injuries


  • SG Jeremy Lamb (knee) questionable
  • PF JaKarr Sampson (knee) questionable
  • SF T.J. Warren (foot) out


  • SG Avery Bradley (calf) questionable
  • SF Andre Iguodala (hip) questionable

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Pacers at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks


Heat 114, Pacers 106

Money line (ML)

PASS because even though I like Miami to keep up its winning ways over Indiana, the Heat (-175) are a little out of my price range for an NBA regular-season money line.

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Against the spread (ATS)

This has been such a one-sided series in Miami’s favor recently because it matches up well with Indiana and the only thing different for this game is the Pacers don’t have bubble breakout star Warren in the lineup.

Newly acquired SG Caris LeVert ideally would be filling in Warren’s missing production, but he just made his Pacers debut after spending the past two months sidelined by a medical condition.

LeVert is going to make a difference eventually for the Pacers but not today and not against this Heat team.

Also, Indiana averages the most field-goal attempts per game within five feet of the basket and Miami has the ninth-best defensive field-goal percentage on attempts within five feet.

GIMME HEAT -4 (-110) for 1 unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight lean OVER 215.5 (-110) because Miami and SF Jimmy Butler, in particular, are great at getting to the foul line and Indiana is 23rd in defensive FTA/FG rate.

Also, the Heat have regressed year over year significantly in 3-point shooting, but the Pacers are 26th in defensive 3-point percentage so this could be sort of a bounce-back game for Miami from behind the arc.

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