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Kansas State vs. Baylor odds, picks and prediction

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The Kansas State Wildcats (9-19, 4-14 Big 12) meet the No. 2 Baylor Bears (21-1, 13-1) in the quarterfinal of the Big 12 Men’s Basketball Championship Thursday at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo. Tip-off is set for 2:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Kansas State-Baylor odds and lines, with NCAA college basketball picks and predictions.

Kansas State vs. Baylor: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Kansas State +1000 (bet $100 to win $1,000) | Baylor -2000 (bet $2,000 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Kansas State +19.5 (-110) | Baylor -19.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 137.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Kansas State vs. Baylor: Three things to know

  1. Kansas State trounced TCU 71-50 in the opening round of the tourney as a 3.5-point underdog to win its second straight game. It’s 4-1 straight up and 3-1-1 ATS over its last five games.
  2. Baylor won its first Big 12 regular-season championship this season and the only loss was on the road to a then-No. 24 Kansas team Feb. 27.
  3. The Bears have won four straight over the Wildcats dating back to the beginning of last season and went 3-1 ATS. Both of their wins this season were boat races. Baylor won the first meeting by 31 and the second by 48.

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Kansas State vs. Baylor: Odds, lines, predictions and picks


Baylor 95, Kansas State 58

Money line (ML)

PASS because while there is no real argument I can make for Kansas State winning this game, there’s just no way I’m betting Baylor (-2000) for an outright win.

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Against the spread (ATS)

Baylor is probably going to pummel Kansas State but laying this kind of number makes me a tad squeamish. There are just so many ways you can lose betting this heavy of a favorite.

Aside from upsetting a then-No. 10 Oklahoma team Feb. 23, the other previous three Kansas State wins aren’t at all impressive.

One of those wins was against a TCU squad ranked eighth in the Big 12 (out of 10 teams) another was to a last-place Iowa State and the other was a nail-biter against Nebraska-Omaha.

Also, the Bears are mauling opponents this season. If you remove the two shaky performances against conference foes Feb. 23 and 27 following a 21-day COVID-19-related hiatus, Baylor is covering these lopsided spreads.

Lean BAYLOR -19.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Over has cashed in four straight Kansas State-Baylor meetings and eight of the last nine. In the previous four games, the total has gone Over by an average of 27 points and it’s because the Wildcats cannot stop the Bears.

Baylor is the best 3-point shooting team in the country, Kansas State is 312th in opponent’s 3-point shooting and 275th in opponent 3-point attempt rate.

Even if the Wildcats no-show offensively, which is certainly possible given they average the fewest points per game in the Big 12, the Bears can carry this game Over the total.

TAKE OVER 137.5 (-110) for 1 unit.

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