I’m staying on brand here by promoting the odds boost from my podcasts, but if you’re a casual bettor that’s backing the Chiefs in this game, what’s not to like? When these teams met in Week 12, it was decided by three points, and Kansas City was on a terrible ATS streak leading up to the AFC Championship game. So if you don’t want to lay the points or play the moneyline, this gets you plus-money on a Chiefs victory, as long as Mahomes does his part. He threw three touchdowns in the Week 12 win over Tampa, which was one of seven times Mahomes did so this season.
I’ll be all over Tyreek Hill props in this game, and this just feels like another way to back him, while leaving the door open to still cash on a Mahomes bomb to someone like Mecole Hardman. Hill finished with an insane 13-269-3 line in the regular season matchup, hauling in the two longest touchdowns of the game — 75 and 44-yarders. He had his second-longest reception of the season in the AFC Championship game against Buffalo, going for 71 yards, but failing to reach the end zone. Tom Brady’s longest of the season is 52 yards, and while that offense is clicking, I’ll take the more explosive side in KC, particularly against a Tampa secondary that’s the weaker of the two.
Consider this play more of an idea than an actual bet, although I don’t mind laying small money on this at all. Only the Packers scored more second quarter points than the Chiefs this season, and the Bucs also ranked in the top five. Kansas City scored 21 points in the second quarter in the AFC Championship, while the Bucs scored 14 points in the second quarter of the NFC Championship. The Bucs also have one of the worst second quarter defenses in points allowed this season. So while I think this is a nice plus-money prop, the idea I really want to bring up here is live betting Kansas City to win the second quarter, or live bet them to win the first half if trailing after the first quarter. It’ll be more of a gut call play based on where we’re at in the game, but I think attacking this game live will be a good call. As usual, I’ll have in-game plays on Twitter, assuming I play any.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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