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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction


The Miami Marlins (19-23) and Philadelphia Phillies (22-21) split the first two games of a three-game set. They will finish off the series Thursday at 7:05 p.m. ET in Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. He is 1-3 with a 4.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 51 IP over nine starts.

Alcantara had allowed 2 ER or less in four straight until his last outing when the Los Angeles Dodgers got to him for 8 ER in just 1 1/3 IP.

In three career starts at Citizens Bank Park, he has put up a 1.33 ERA and 18/7 K/BB in 20 1/3 IP.

RHP Vincent Velasquez is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He has made eight appearances (five starts), and is 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9 in 29 1/3 IP.

Velasquez has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last three starts (all on solo HR), with a 19/8 K/BB in 17 IP in that span.

Dating back to 2019, in his last five starts against Miami, Velasquez has put up an ugly 11.94 ERA with five homers allowed in 17 1/3 innings.

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Marlins at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:33 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins -1.5 (+155) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Marlins 5, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

The Phillies have fared well at home this season, with a 14-7 record. But the Marlins have a slightly better run differential (+2 vs -4) and the clear pitching edge in this contest.

Velasquez has been extremely lucky, benefiting from both a .231 BAbip and 92.9% left-on-base percentage. His BB/9 is 5th highest in the league among starters, and it’s only a matter of time before his ERA shoots up. That may start tonight, so take the MARLINS (+100).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Velasquez has lowered his ERA by almost two runs from last year’s mark, but his skills aren’t any better. He’s walking more batters and allowing a lot of hard contact, leading to seven home runs against him in 25 1/3 IP in his last five starts.

Alcantara had a rough outing last time out, but his skills to this point are better than ever. There is value in MARLINS -1.5 (+155).

Over/Under (O/U)

Miami should put some runs on the board in this one, but this is not an offense that has a lot of explosive games. This game is likely to end up right around the total, and the smart move is to PASS.

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