New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

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The New York Mets (10-11) and Philadelphia Phillies (13-14) wrap up their three-game series on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets 5-3

Sunday is the rubber match of this series. The Phillies took Friday’s opener 2-1 and the Mets won 5-4 Saturday.

LHP David Peterson is New York’s projected starter for the finale. The southpaw is 1-3 with a 5.59 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 4 starts this season.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K in a 2-1 squeaker to visiting Boston Red Sox Tuesday
  • 2021 vs. Phillies: 1-1, 6.30 ERA (10 IP, 7 ER), 10 H, 2 BB, 15 K in 2 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies: 1-1, 9.00 ERA (12 IP, 12 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 13.5 K/9 in 3 starts

RHP Zach Eflin is penciled in to toe the bump for Philadelphia. He is 1-1 with a 3.58 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 0.6 BB/9 in 5 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 8 K in a 5-2 defeat at St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday
  • Career vs. Mets: 3-4, 5.21 ERA (57 IP, 33 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 11 starts, last facing them in 2019

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Mets at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)


Phillies 4, Mets 3

Money line (ML)

PHILADELPHIA (-115) the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. New York’s offense is last in the NL with 3.0 runs scored per game.

Plus, the Mets might be without CF Brandon Nimmo and 3B J.D. Davis, who both exited Saturday’s game with hand injuries and are listed as day to day.

As mentioned above, this will be Peterson’s third start vs. New York this season. He yielded 6 earned runs in 4 innings of an 8-2 road loss April 7, but he bounced back seven days later. He held them to 1 earned run on 3 hits and no walks, while striking out 10 over 6 innings in a 5-1 home victory.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. The Phillies (+1.5, -185) are a bit costly, while the Mets own the worst ATS record in the majors. Better to just AVOID.

ATS records: Mets 6-15 | Phillies 13-14

Over/Under (O/U)

Back the UNDER 8.5 (+100) to win 75% of 1 UNIT.

With the Mets’ hitting woes, the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games. The Phillies are 4-2 to the Under in their last 6 outings.

O/U records: Mets 7-12-2 | Phillies 15-12

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2021 MLB 34-28-1 9-8-1 +2.855
2021 (all sports) 137-113-2 58-49-1 +16.405
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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