Kelvin Sampson has the second-seeded and sixth-ranked Houston Cougars dialed in, at least on defense, and they will try to steamroll past No. 12-seeded Oregon State on Monday night in the Elite Eight of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Houston (27-3) is trying to reach the Final Four for the first time since the high-flying Phi Slama Jama heyday from 1982-84. Sampson is looking to make the Final Four for the first time since 2002, when his Oklahoma team beat Missouri, the last No. 12 seed to make it this far. But the Beavers (20-12), who finished sixth in the Pac-12, have pulled a slew of March Madness upsets in winning nine of their past 10 to get here.
Tip-off from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is set for 7:15 p.m. ET on CBS. The Cougars are eight-point favorites in the latest Oregon State vs. Houston odds from William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under for total points scored is 129. Before finalizing any Houston vs. Oregon State picks, check out the March Madness college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of $2,200 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Houston vs. Oregon State in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Oregon State vs. Houston:
- Oregon State vs. Houston spread: Cougars -8
- Oregon State vs. Houston over-under: 129 points
- Oregon State vs. Houston money line: Beavers +285, Cougars -360
- OSU: Opponents make just 29.8 percent on 3-point tries, best in the Pac-12
- HOU: The Cougars have a plus-9.3 rebounding margin, while Oregon State is plus-1.1
Why Houston can cover
The Cougars have won 10 straight and are 7-3 against the spread over that span. They are led by guard Quentin Grimes, who is an all-around force in averaging 18.1 points, six rebounds and 1.9 assists. He also is one of three starters averaging at least 1.3 steals as the Cougars take the ball away more than eight times per game. Justin Gorham does the tough work inside, scoring 8.6 points and grabbing a team-high 8.6 rebounds, and he gives the Cougars a ton of second-chance points, ranking eighth in the nation with 3.9 offensive boards per game.
The Cougars, who are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 neutral-site games as a favorite, also get big contributions from guards Marcus Sasser (13.3 points) and Dejon Jarreau (10.9). Jarreau also leads the team in assists (4.3) and grabs 5.4 rebounds, and his defense played a big part as UH held Syracuse to a season-low 28-percent shooting in the 62-46 win Saturday. The Cougars lead the nation in that category, as opponents shoot just 37 percent, and they allow just 57.6 points per contest (No. 2 in NCAA). The offense is efficient, scoring more than 77 points and shooting better than 36 percent from three-point range, with Grimes hitting 41.3 percent.
Why Oregon State can cover
Oregon State is 16-5 ATS as an underdog (5-0 against top-25 teams), and senior guard Ethan Thompson has willed the team to this point. The All Pac-12 performer is averaging more than 20 points and seven rebounds in the NCAA Tournament 2021, and the Beavers are yielding an average just over 61 points in the three games. Thompson leads Oregon State in scoring (15.3) and assists (3.8) and also grabs 3.9 rebounds. He also has made a third of his 141 tries from 3-point range this season and is 25-of-26 from the free-throw line in the tournament.
The Beavers are 20-9-1 ATS overall this season, and the offense gets a lot of second chances thanks to forward Warith Alatishe. The junior led the Pac-12 and ranked 28th in offensive rebounds with 3.3 per game, and he averages 9.6 points and 8.7 boards overall. Sophomore guard Jarod Lucas scores 12.9 points per game and is the top outside shooting option, hitting almost 39 percent of his team-high 193 attempts. Senior guard Zach Reichle also plays a critical role in all areas, as he chips in 7.4 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists.
How to make Houston vs. Oregon State picks
The model is leaning over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 139 points. It also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Oregon State vs. Houston? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its college basketball picks.