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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction


The Philadelphia Phillies (35-39) meet the New York Mets (40-32) Sunday at Citi Field for their four-game series finale. Game 4’s first pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York took a 2-1 series lead Saturday by rallying with a 2-run bottom of the 9th to beat Philly 4-3 despite a subpar outing from RHP Jacob deGrom (by his standards).

Season series: Mets lead 8-4.

RHP Zack Wheeler makes his 16th start for the Phillies. Wheeler is 5-4 with a 2.36 ERA (99 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K Tuesday vs. the Washington Nationals.
  • Wheeler is 1-0 in two starts this season vs. the Mets with a 4.73 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.43 WHIP and 6.0 K/BB rate.
    • vs. Mets on the current roster: 127 at-bats with a .291/.343/.346 slash line, 27/5 K/BB, 0 HR and 9 RBIs.

RHP Marcus Stroman is on the hill for the Mets. Stroman is 6-5 with a 2.32 ERA (85 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 over 15 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 BB and 0 K in New York’s 3-0 loss to the Atlanta Braves Tuesday. Stroman exited the game early with hip soreness.
  • Stroman is 2-1 with a 0.53 ERA (17 IP, 1 ER), 0.77 WHIP and 4.7 K/BB rate in three starts vs. the Phillies this year.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 181 at-bats with a .232/.286/.343 slash line, 38/14 K/BB, 3 HR and 13 RBIs.

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Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:01 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Mets 5, Phillies 1

Money line (ML)

This is just a better spot for the METS (-130), who have a better record than the Phillies vs. right-handed starters and New York is 24-10 at home while Philly is only 14-25 on the road.

Also, the Mets have a significant edge in the pitching matchup because Stroman has been lights out vs. the Phillies this season and he has slightly better pitching peripherals against them than Wheeler vs. the Mets.

Not only that, but New York’s bullpen is top 10 in SIERA, xFIP, K-BB%, home runs allowed per nine innings and left-on-base percentage while Philly’s bullpen is worse in every category and is 27th in WAR with the most blown saves in the majors.

BET the METS (-130) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Mets -1.5 (+155) isn’t a fat enough payout considering seven of the 12 Phillies-Mets meetings this year have been one-run games.

Furthermore, New York has a losing run line record as a home favorite (10-16 ATS) and Philly has a winning run record as a road dog (17-12 ATS).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) for a half unit since both pitchers have fantastic advanced pitching numbers against their opponent and the Under has cashed in five of the last eight Phillies-Mets games.

Even though the Mets have been one of the best teams in baseball over the past month it’s been mostly on the strength of their pitching.

New York’s lineup is 22nd in wRC+, 25th in wOBA and 23rd in WAR this month.

Plus, Citi Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the MLB and ranks 32nd (out of 33 ballparks) for runs scored in park factors.

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