The San Diego Padres (32-18) and the Milwaukee Brewers (24-25) close out their four-game series at American Family Field Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego pulled out a 2-1 extra-inning victory Wednesday for its second win of the series. C Victor Caratini‘s RBI single scored RF Wil Myers in the top of the 10th.
Season series: Brewers lead 4-2.
LHP Ryan Weathers makes his sixth start of the season for the Padres. He is 2-1 with a 1.48 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.92 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 over five starts and five relief appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 2 K in San Diego’s 6-4 victory over the Seattle Mariners Saturday.
- Career vs. Brewers: No appearances.
RHP Adrian Houser is the projected starter for the Brewers. He is 3-5 with a 4.53 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 across nine starts.
- Last outing: Loss in 4 IP with 6 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 4 K at the Cincinnati Reds Friday.
- Career vs. Padres: 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA (13 IP, 4 ER), 0.85 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 in two starts and one relief outing.
- vs. Padres on the current roster: 39 at-bats with a .179/.238/.469 slash line, 10/3 K/BB, 0 HR and 3 RBIs.
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Padres at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
- Money line: Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Brewers +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+135) | Brewers +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Padres 6, Brewers 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the PADRES (-125) for 1 unit because they are a far better hitting team and have a significant edge in pitching as well.
San Diego’s lineup got off to a slow start but over the past two weeks, Padres batters are sixth in WAR and wOBA, and fifth in wRC+.
A major reason why they’re starting to find their groove at the plate is that they’re drawing more walks (second in BB/K rate over the last 14 days). It’s an area of concern for Houser, who grades in the 28th percentile of BB%.
Also, Weathers has been very tough on left-handed hitters. Three of Milwaukee’s best bats are lefties who’ve struggled vs. left-handed pitching in 2B Kolten Wong, OF Christian Yelich and 3B Travis Shaw.
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Padres -1.5 (+135). I’d prefer to stick with San Diego’s money line since Houser has pitched well against the Padres.
Furthermore, the Brewers have good arms in the bullpen and their numbers should progress toward the mean in the coming weeks.
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 8 (-110) because these teams have a combined 10-4 O/U record when these starters take the mound but the Under cashed in eight of the last 10 Padres-Brewers meetings, dating back to 2019.
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