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UFC on ABC 2: Sam Alvey vs. Julian Marquez odds, picks and prediction

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In a middleweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Sam Alvey and Julian Marquez meet at UFC on ABC 2 – also known as UFC Vegas 23 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 11:30 a.m. ET on ESPN+, the prelims start at noon ET on ESPN/ESPN+ and the main card begins at 3 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+. Below, we analyze the UFC on ABC 2 Alvey vs. Marquez odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

UFC on ABC 2 Alvey vs. Marquez Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:19 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Alvey +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Marquez -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +105 | Under -125)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +135 | No -160)

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UFC on ABC 2 Alvey vs. Marquez: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Alvey 33-14-1 | Marquez 8-2

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

ALVEY (+150) heads into this fight on an 0-4-1 skid, and he is likely fighting for his UFC job in this battle. “Smilin’ Sam” picked up a draw last time out at UFC 254 on the Khabib-Gaethje card against Da-Un Jung. He has the four losses in the past five, but setbacks against Ryan Spann, Klidson Abreu, Jimmy Crute and Rogerio Nogueira are certainly nothing to be ashamed about.

Alvey holds a 3.5-inch reach advantage over Marquez (-185). The latter is 2-1 in the past three fights since making his UFC debut, with a loss to Alessio Di Chirico at The Ultimate Fighter 27 Finale. He picked up a submission win at UFC 258 against Maki Pitolo after more than a two-year layoff.

The better value here is Alvey as he should head into the octagon with a sense of urgency and desperation.

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Over/Under (O/U)

It’s a little on the moderately expensive side, but NO (-160): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is the play here. While the past three fights for Smilin’ Sam have involved the judges, three of his past seven have finished inside the distance. Marquez has stoppages in six of his past seven fights.

It’s a little risky, but taking Alvey in a three-round block to win is worth playing. ALVEY IN ROUND 1 (+800), ALVEY IN ROUND 2 (+1150) and ALVEY IN ROUND 3 (+1900) could set you up for quite the windfall if he wins inside the distance. Yes, you will lose two rounds, but a stoppage for Alvey will have you quite far ahead.

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